The Province of ALBERTA, Canada's No. 1 oil and gas province, will enjoy in 1970 its first ever "Million Barrels Daily" Petroleum Year, and will make that target by a substantial margin. This is indicated in an analysis of Oil Nominations to the Alberta Conservation Board made by the "Daily Oil Bulletin", covering 1969 and 1970, including the Buyer Estimates for September through November of this year.
Forecasts for the remaining months of 1970 are complicated, of course, by a number of factors including the Arab oil flow interruptions, higher oil tanker costs on overseas petroleum, shortages of supplies in U.S. markets connected to Alberta oil, and the politics of both Ottawa and Washington. Despite these uncertainties, it is reasonable to expect that Alberta for 1970 will average production of all petroleum liquids of about 1,040,000 barrels per day. This would be a boost of some 126,000 barrels daily over the average for 1969, when Nominations for Alberta oils averaged 913,862 barrels daily.
According to the Bulletin's analysis, which is printed on Page Two of this edition, Albertans can credit increased hunger for Alberta oil in the United States for the lion's share of the production gain this year.
The estimated Nominations for U.S. markets for first eleven months of 1970 average 576,122 barrels daily a jump of about 108,000 barrels daily over the 468,428 b/d average for 1969. Nominations for Canadian markets for the 11 months of 1970 are estimated at 465,105 b/d up some 37,000 b/d over the 1969 average of 428,688 b/d.
The differences between these Canadian U.S. total Nominations above, and the Total Demand for Alberta Oil figures on the tabulation are accounted for by Pipeline Fill and Pipeline Storage Changes during 1969-70. These volumes are not allocated to specific markets on either side of the Border.
Biggest change in the two-year period occurred between September December 1969, when Interprovincial Pipeline was taking fill for its Chicago Loop and building stocks. In the first quarter of 1970 pipeline fill was a large negative factor as the accumulated stocks were delivered to markets.
During the Five Months - July-November 1970, the Nominations for Alberta Oil are expected to average 1,070,619 barrels daily. This compares with 1,014,835 b/d during First Half 1970; 970,967 b/d during the Second Half of 1969; and 856,757 b/d during First Half 1969.
In the 1970-71 Winter an Alberta production level reaching as high as 1,250,000 b/d is within the realm of probability, a volume that would stretch oil gathering and transport capacity close to ceiling.
Alberta developed production capacity is, of course somewhat higher but uncertainties of assured market growth have had a delaying effect in additions to gathering transport capacities.